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Microsoft word - tgk9_translation.doc

Fixed Income Research

Company snapshot:
TGK-9 ranks third among Russian peers in terms of instal ed heating capacity and sixth in Issue info
terms of instal ed electricity-generating capacity. The company’s revenue structure is balanced between heating revenue (51%), electricity revenue (45%) and other revenue (4%). TGK-9’s generating facilities are located in the Urals and the company has 3 operating branches, located in Perm, Sverdlovsk and Komi. Renova may swap energy assets for a stake in Gazprom
Energoholding
TGK-6 principal shareholder is IES-Holding – the largest private investor in the Russian power utilities sector. IES Holding is part of Viktor Vekselberg’s Renova Group. The total instal ed capacity of IES-control ed generating companies is 16GW, or 7% of total instal ed generating capacity in Russia. Renova is negotiating with Gazprom power subsidiary Gazprom Energoholding (GEH) regarding a merger of generation assets. The deal structure provides for IES Holding to merge with GEH, with Renova receiving a blocking stake in the combined company. The center of consolifation of IES-Holding’s power assets
TGK-9 has also been chosen as a base for the consolidation of al the power assets of IES-Holding. The structure of the deal provides that TGK-9 issues additional shares and exchanges the newly-issued shares for al the stakes of IES Holing in other power assets. At the moment there is no plans concerning merging al the IES-control ed TGKs into a united company but stil we believe that this deal wil increase TGK-9’s assets and equity significantly and therefore can be treated as positive for the company’s debt load. Low fuel efficiency outweigh the positive effect from the cheap coal in
the fuel mix
The majority of TGK-9’s generating units are gas-fired but coal also plays a significant role Utilities yield curve
in fuel mix (15%). The coal TGK-9 uses to fuel its plants is relatively inexpensive, particularly due to low transportation costs. However, these advantages are outweighed by the fact that the company’s generating assets are outdated and therefore have high fuel ТGК-2 BО-01
consumption rates. We believe TGK-9’s inefficient generating assets mean the company Kuzbassenergo
Quadra 01 ТGК-6-01
Finance 2
has limited potential to benefit from market liberalization. Kuzbassenergo
ТGК-5 01 Finance 1
ТGК-9 01
CAPEX 2011-2017 will reach RUB 64.5 bn, Net Debt/EBITDA to peak in
ТGК-1 01
2014 at 4.8x
Mosenergo-3
Mosenergo
TGK-9’s mandatory CAPEX program is planned til 2017 when the last power unit under CSAs is launched. The company is due to spend around RUB 65bn by 2017, and we believe TGK-9 wil definitely have to raise additional debt to finance its CAPEX. We believe the company’s aggregate debt wil peak in 2014 with Debt/EBITDA of 4.8x. After 2014, Duration
additional CSA-based revenues fol owing completion of mandatory investment should al ow the company to decrease its debt load significantly. 13 September 2011
TG K-9: Shareholder structure
Key risk metrics
VTB Capital
Free-float
EBITDA / Interest expense
Total Assets
Total Debt
Source: Company data, IFC Metropol estimates Net Debt / EBITDA
Total Liabilities
Total Equity and Liabilities
Source: Company data, IFC Metropol estimates Revenue breakdown
Pre-tax income (EBT)
Electricity
Net Income
CF from operating activity before interest
expense and income tax
CF from operating activity
CF from investing activity
CF from financing activity
Cash flow for the period
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Head Office, 13, Donskaya Street, Building 1, Moscow, 119049 Princes House, 38 Jermyn Street, London, SW1Y 6DN Telephone: +7(495) 933 38 83 / 933 33 09 RESEARCH
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH
Mark Rubinstein
Peter Kadish
Fedor Kornachev
Head of Research
Head of FI Research
FIXED INCOME AND DERIVATIVES DEPARTMENT
Artur Plaude
Sergey Kolesnikov
Eviza Sokolova
Head of department
DEBT SYNDICATE
FIXED INCOME TRADING
Semen Odintsov
Sergey Arzumanov
Daniil Ivanov
Head of Debt Syndicate
FIXED INCOME SALES
Alexey Krivolap
Alexander Tanas
Mikhail Dvorkin
Dmitry Dolganovsky
Head of FI sales
EDITORIAL&PRODUCTION
Victoria Shishkina
Alla Chubakovskaya
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Global have served as officers or directors of the relevant companies. “METROPOL” IFC Ltd may rely on information barriers, such Disclaimer. This report was produced by: “METROPOL” Investment Financial Company Ltd (“METROPOL” IFC Ltd) a as "Chinese Wal s", to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within “METROPOL” IFC Ltd, into other member of al leading Russian exchanges: MICEX, RTS and Stock Exchange “Saint-Petersburg”. “METROPOL” IFC Ltd is areas, units, groups or affiliates of “METROPOL” IFC Ltd. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in al an affiliate of Metropol (UK) Limited. Head Office: 13 bld 1 Donskaya Street, Moscow, Russia, 119049. This document has jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. 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