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Year to date Equity Market Returns as at 15 September 2009 seeing consumer spending faring better than expected; the corporate PC upgrade cycle is also expected to pick up steam in 2010 and last through the year. In addition, better profits are a key catalyst for better capex and tech spending. Seven months into the US equity market rally, we are still Statistically, capex and technology spending in consumer positive on the cyclical sectors of the S&P. Since the March IT companies generally improve two quarters after the low, the best performing sectors have been the interest companies experience improving profits from a pick-up in rate-sensitive Financial sector, and the cyclical sectors of consumer spending. Business IT spending comes through a Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary. We now expect to see a transition away from interest rate-sensitive sectors and those with purely mean reversion and second In Consumer Discretionary, we are gradually looking to
derivative growth drivers, in favour of those with organic shift away from the early cyclical stocks (for example multi-line growth, either from domestic or international sources. As retailers) towards the later-stage plays (for example media, such we have positioned our overweights in Technology,
broadcasting, consumer services) which have more sustainable Consumer Discretionary and Industrials.
growth drivers. We note that inflationary expectations have a strong influence on the relative outperformance trends of In Technology, the dual drivers for the medium term are
the early cyclicals within this sector. While inflation is not of improved IT spending and new product cycles like Microsoft immediate concern in the US, we are mindful of this factor/ Windows 7 and new chips from Intel and AMD. We are driver because of its particularly high correlation. Please refer to the last page for important notice & disclaimer. We are still overweight in Industrials. This has been a sector
In addition, for these sectors overall, easier year-over-year we have liked since the middle of the year. Early on, we had comparisons for top and bottom lines, and the impact of a an increased exposure to companies which are expected to weaker dollar are added boosts. While this is not a high quality benefit from the US stimulus programme, a large part of which catalyst and is not sustainable, this will have a material impact will be infrastructure spending. The spending is expected to starting in the third quarter. For example, in the IT Hardware be broadly distributed, across many participants and various sector, with units and revenue down over 27% in the last four service segments. We are now focusing on broader multi- industry companies like General Electric and companies like railways that are expected to benefit as general industrial activity starts to improve.
1 month and 6 month performance of S&P 500 sectors Source: Bloomberg, 9 March - 9 September 2009 Please refer to the last page for important notice & disclaimer. Strategically, Disney has announced its intention to acquire Marvel Entertainment. Marvel has a plethora of evergreen In the Technology sector, we have added two new companies brands and characters that Disney will be able to leverage Dell and Micron, both beneficiaries of the pick-up in IT
aggressively across al of its divisions, dramatical y expanding spending. These two companies have had their earnings its content targeted at boys, such as Spider-Man, X-Men expectations brought down significantly. Cost-cutting and Fantastic Four. A combination of Marvel’s success in measures for these two companies have been among the film expansion and Disney’s ability to merge Marvel into its most aggressive within the tech universe. Utilisation has hit fold could eventual y generate revenue synergies. The impact trough levels and both have exercised good capex controls. could be positive enough to offset the near term burden of the As a result, margin leverage will be substantial for any revenue In Industrials, we added Union Pacific, an operator of a
In the Consumer space, we have added Walt Disney. Disney
network of railways in North America. Union Pacific has the has broad exposure to media (cable networks and studios) highest proportion of legacy contracts, around twice that of its and leisure and consumer services (parks and hotels). 63% of peers, and that should continue to lend the company pricing Disney’s Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) is derived from power. A recovery in industrial production and automobile cable networks. This provides a relatively defensive earnings volumes is also positive for Union Pacific given its relatively large stream. The company also has strong brands and positions in exposures to these areas. Although there is some headline kids entertainment and live sports. The lul in movie content is risk given the pending change in US legislation on railroads, also reversing with Up, TS3, Cars 2 and Pirates 4. the market expects only smal changes to railroad economics and there is not likely to be a material risk to earnings.
MODEL PORTFOLIO
TOP PICKS
Johnson & Johnson, Teva Pharmaceuticals Please refer to the last page for important notice & disclaimer.

Source: http://www.uobam.sg/uobam/qis/4Q2009/17-19.pdf

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