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Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Evaluation of Solar Electric Power Technologies in Jordan Omar Badrana,*, Emad Abdulhadib, Rustum Mamlookc a Mechanical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Al-Balqa Applied University P.O.Box 331006, Amman 11134 – b Mechatronics Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Al-Balqa Applied University P.O.Box 331006, Amman 11134 - c Department of Computer Engineering, College of computer Engineering and Sciences, Al-kharj University, Saudia Arabia
Abstract
Jordan is considered one of the sun-belt countries, which possesses high solar radiation on its horizontal surface. The present study will be concerned on the uses of fuzzy sets methodology to perform evaluation between the most suitable solar technologies for power generation in Jordan, namely, solar ponds and photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The criterion of the evaluation were based on different parameters, i.e., power capacity, efficiency, availability, capacity factor, storage capability, cost, maturity, land usage and safety, they are planned as the technologies for the near foreseen term. Based on benefit to cost ratios, the results showed that photovoltaic technology found to be the better choice in terms of generating electricity, research and development and more effective programs of support and installation. 2010 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved Keywords: Fuzzy Sets Methodology; Solar Electric Power; Control Technology; Benefit to Cost Ratios; Power Plants; Renewable Energy. hand, will drive the demand for solar technologies in the near term. 1. Introduction *
The great importance of electricity from solar technologies is due to the considerable associated benefits Jordan relies, almost completely, on imported oil from (Schott, 2006) (Haas, 2001) (NEPCO, 2006) (Badran, neighboring countries, which causes a financial burden on the national economy (Jaber et al, 2008). Domestic energy  Maximum power generation at peak load hours in hot resources, including oil and gas, cover only 3–4% of the country’s energy needs. Jordan spends more than 7.5% of  The modular character of the solar field makes it its national income on the purchase of energy. The levels of energy and electricity consumption will probably  The off grid solar power production for remote double in 15 years, and it is probable that annual primary locations maybe competitive to fossil fuel power due to energy demand will reach 8x106 ton of oil equivalent (toe) the high cost of rural power since it requires to be by 2010. Jordan accounts an average of 15.85x103 ton of fuel combustion almost producing 85% by mass of the  Increases in local employment and income; The solar energy flux reaching the Earth’s surface represents a few thousand times the current use of  Avoided risks of disruption in fossil fuel supply and primary energy by humans, earth receives 174 peta- Watt of incoming solar radiation at any given time,  Provision of infrastructure and economic flexibility by unfortunately, this huge amount of energy is not well modular, dispersed and smaller scale technologies;  The potential to greatly reduce, and perhaps eliminate, Electricity production using solar energy is one of the pollution associated with electricity services main research areas at present in the field of renewable  Contribution towards sustainability. energies, the significant price fluctuations are seen for the  Some solar technologies provides other benefits beside fossil fuel in one hand, and the trend toward privatization that dominates the power markets these days in the other Different types of solar power technologies need further improvements and cost reduction to be competitive * Corresponding author. badran@yahoo.com with fossil fuel power plants in future power markets. The 2010 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 4, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) evaluated remote villages (houses, schools, and other public the potential for the emerging photovoltaic (PV) buildings) each panel having an average generating technologies to meet the solar program’s technical and capacity of 1050Wh/day (Hrayshat, 2007). Durisch et al economic targets; they discussed the current structure, (2007) performed calculations for five commercial PV capabilities, assumptions and made a linear programming modules for Al Qawairah site in Jordan and developed model of capacity expansion plans (Braun and Skinner, In the present study, a fuzzy logic methodology is used Solar power has the advantage of electricity generation to compare between photovoltaic (PV) and solar ponds in at peak load hours. Hot climate countries, like Jordan, have terms of their benefits (merits) and costs (barriers). The the highest electricity peak load consumption in demands effect of different parameters on the power production of during the hot summer days as shown in Figure1, these technologies was taken from previous studies proposed for Jordanian climate, (Hrayshat, 2007) (Jaber et al, 2004) (Khalil et al, 1997) (Tahat et al, 2000) (Abu-Khader et al, 2008) (Badran 2001) (Durisch et al, 2007). 2. Solar Electric Power Technologies
Solar power technologies can be classified into direct (PV) and indirect electricity conversion, the indirect electricity conversion consists of concentrating and non-concentrating solar power systems (Quaschning, 2003). A solar pond does not concentrate solar radiation, but Figure 1. Monthly variations of electricity consumption in Jordan collects solar energy in the pond’s water by absorbing both (NEPCO 2006).
the direct and diffuse components of sunlight; this is good Solar power plants play an important role in decreasing for countries where the sky is frequently overcast. Solar the environmental pollution; they contribute directly to the ponds contain salt in high concentrations near the bottom, CO2 reduction that caused by the conventional fossil fuel with decreasing concentrations closer to the surface power plants. According to the Greenpeace study, the use of solar power plants can avoid 362 million tons of CO2 This variation in concentration, known as a salt-density emissions worldwide from 2002 to 2025. (Brakmann et al, gradient, suppresses the natural tendency of hot water to rise, thus allowing the heated water to remain in the An evaluation study for different power production bottom layers of the pond while the surface layers stay systems using fuzzy set methodology was prepared by relatively cool. Temperature differences between the Mamlook (2006). It shows that the solar power production bottom and top layers are sufficient to drive an organic is the best preferable option under the Jordanian climate in Rankine-cycle engine that uses a volatile organic the basis of cost to benefit ratio. He also used the same substance as the working fluid instead of steam. mechanism under the same Jordanian climate for solar Temperatures of 90°C are routinely achieved in the pond utilization applications; he showed that the solar power bottom, and solar ponds are sufficiently large to provide production is the second best choice that comes after the some degree of energy storage. The potential of solar solar distillation (Mamlook et al, 2001). ponds to provide fresh water, heat and electricity, Badran (2001) has studied different solar power especially for island communities and coastal desert technologies. He suggested that the Jordanian government regions, appears promising, but has not been fully needs to do more serious steps towards the utilization of investigated (Zumerchik, 2001). Dead Sea is considered industrial solar energy for power generation applications in largest solar pond on earth, due to its high salinity. The largest solar pond built so far is the 250000 m2 pond at Bet Dead Sea is considered a perfect place for solar pond Ha Arava in Israel. The heat collected in this pond has power plants due to its high salinity. The largest solar pond been used to generate 5 MW of electrical power using an built so far is in Israel, and used to generate electricity, organic fluid Rankine cycle (Sukhatme, 1996). The (Sukhatme, 1996). Other studies by (Khalil et al (1997) principle of the collection and storage of solar energy in presented a theoretical study on the evaluation of electric salt ponds where the salinity increases with depth is solar pond power plant under Jordanian climate. Tahat et introduced, and the six polar ponds constructed by Israel al (2000) built a mini solar pond in Jordan and studied its since 1960 to test the theory of solar pond energy thermal performance to show its merits under Jordanian conversion are indicated. They examined the electric power, with attention given to the water layers, pumps, PV systems have wide range utilization in Jordan. They evaporator, organic vapor turbogenerator and condenser. are used for water-pumping systems, powering radio– The performance characteristics of solar pond power telephone stations, as well as supplying electricity to plants, which can be started up in a few minutes and clinics and schools of very small communities in the deliver up to ten times or more of their rated output power, remote regions (Hrayshat, 2007) (Jaber et al, 2004) are pointed out as the basis for the suggestion that they can (Badran 2001) (Abu-Khader et al, 2008). There are future be used initially as peaking plants in the power grid. plans consisting of installation of 1036 PV panels in Respect to the Israeli plans, the accumulated generated 2010 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 4, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) Figure 2. Solar pond power plant schematic for generating electricity power by solar pond will be up to 2000 MW these supports, PV is not expected to be generally (Sukhatme, 1996) (Bronicki, 1981). Khalil et al (1997) competitive until after 2025 – although it will continue to presented 5 MWe electric solar pond power plant in the compete well in a growing range of market niches in dead sea part of Jordan with surface area 1.5 km2, they which the cost of deployment supports is moderate (IEA, found that the solar pond could generate electricy with a levelized cost of 0.234JD/kWh under Jordanian climate. In India, the first solar pond having an area of 1200 m2 was built at the Central Salt and Marine Chemicals Research Institute in 1973. Experimental research ponds having areas of 100 and 240 m2 respectively were operated for a few years at Pondicherry and at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, while a 1600 m2 solar pond was built in Bhavnagar again in the eighties. The largest pond built in India so far is located at Bhuj (Gujrat). The pond has an area of 6000 m2. It has been operating since September 1993 and supplies the process heat need of a nearby dairy (Sukhatme, 1996). 2.2 Photovoltaic (PV) Photovoltaic's (photo for light, voltaic for electricity) Figure 3. PV annual cumulative installation in Germany converts sunlight directly to electricity. Modules are Jordan utilizes PV cells for limited applications (water- mounted on a stationary array or on single- or dual-axis pumping systems, powering radio–telephone stations, as sun trackers (Abu-Khader et al 2008). Arrays can be well as supplying electrical energy for clinics, (Hrayshat, ground-mounted on all types of buildings and structures. 2007) (Jaber et al, 2004). There are future plans consisting The DC output from PV can be conditioned into grid- of installation of large number of PV for power generation quality AC electricity, or DC can be used to charge connected to the grid line (Hrayshat, 2007), (Badran batteries or to split water to produce hydrogen (electrolysis 2001). Durisch et al (2007) performed calculations for five commercial PV modules in Al Qawairah site in Jordan and The photovoltaic (PV) market has grown extensively since 1992. R&D efforts, together with market deployment policies, have effectively produced impressive cost 3. Fuzzy Methodology
reductions: every doubling of the volume produced prompted a cost decrease of about 20%. But market After Zadeh's work on fuzzy sets (1965), many theories deployment is concentrated: Japan, Germany and the in fuzzy logic were developed in Japan, Europe, United United States account for over 85% of total installed States, and elsewhere. Since the 1970s Japanese capacity (Figure 3). PV still requires substantial R&D researchers have been advancing the practical investments, as well as deployment supports, to gain implementation of the fuzzy logic theory; they have been market learning. In the near term, R&D efforts will focus commercializing this technology and they have now over on improving the balance-of-system components for both 2000 patents in the area from fuzzy air conditioner, fuzzy grid connected and stand-alone applications. Even with 2010 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 4, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) washing machine, fuzzy toasters, fuzzy rice cookers, fuzzy benefit and the cost for each solar thermal power vacuum cleaner, and many other industrial fuzzy control processes. They have a subway system that is totally The fuzzy logic decision selection between PV systems controlled by fuzzy computer. It is smooth enough that and solar pond technology was applied according to riders do not need to hold straps, and the controller makes benefits, namely, (B1= power plant capacity or size (MW), 70% fewer judgmental errors in acceleration and braking B2= Annual solar to electric efficiency, B3= Thermal than human operators. The U.S. Space Administration has efficiency, B4= Peak solar to electric efficiency, B5= been involved in the use of fuzzy logic in space control Availability, B6= Annual capacity factor (CF), B7= decision making. Energy consumption could be analyzed storage hours, B8= maturity or popularity, B9= using fuzzy sets (Oder et al, 1993). Also systems could be
Temperature (T), B10= Safety, B11= Concentration ratio controlled using fuzzy (Mamlook et al, 1998). (CR)) to make a decision on the selection between the 3.1. Determining the linguistic variables and the fuzzy sets. different solar technologies that cost less and have better benefits. Many factors affect the decision (costs) (Figure In order to decide between parameters which are 4), i.e., (C1= Hardware cost, C2= Electricity cost, C3= fuzzy, vague, or ambiguous, MATLAB fuzzy Water usage, C4= Land usage, C5= Maintenance cost, and toolbox was used to generate decision based on the The Fuzzy input/ output combination is shown in the Figure 4 as follows: Figure 4. Fuzzy Inputs/Outputs Combination. The fuzzy logic decision selection of the best solar technology options was applied according to their costs and benefits Table 1. Overall fuzzy weights of solar technologies for optimum benefits. * Normalized relative weight = relative weight/maximum relative weight Table 2. Overall fuzzy weights of solar technologies for optimum costs * Normalized relative weight = relative weight/maximum relative weight 2010 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 4, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) Data in Tables 1 and 2 are actual data obtained from different literature such as [(Braun and Skinner, 2007) In the present section, 85 rules were used to predict the (Schott, 2006), (Brakmann et al, 2005), (Dersch et al, most preferable option(s) out of the two solar technologies, 2004), (Mills, 2004),(Wibberley et al, 2006), (Mukund,
they are in a statements form as shown in the Figure 7. 1999) (Porta, 2005), (Zumerchik, 2001), (Aabakken,
2006), (Groenendaal, 2002) (Sukhatme, 1996) (Badran
2001) (Hrayshat, 2007) (Jaber et al, 2004) (Khalil et al,
1997) (Tahat et al, 2000)
The inputs for fuzzy implementation in Table 1 and 2 are considered to be fuzzy variables, each of which can vary over a fixed weight (0-1), the inputs' and output's sets are shown in Figure 5. 3.3. Performing Fuzzy Inference into The System This procedure is used to compute the mapping from the input values to the output values, and it consists of three sub-processes, fuzzification, aggregation and defuzzification (Negnevitsky, 2005) as shown in the following figure. Figure 5. Fuzzy sets, (A) input sets (B) output sets. The linguistic variables that were used to describe the fuzzy sets in Figure 5 are very low (VL), low (L), normal (N), high (H) and very high (VH). The "conversion method" input shown in Figure 6 is responsible for determining the solar technology type; whether it is direct solar conversion (PV) or indirect (thermal conversion) excluding the "thermal efficiency", Figure 8. Fuzzy implementation sequence. "temperature" and "concentration ratio" to have an accurate decision making as shown in Figure 4. 4. Results and Discussion
The fuzzy sets enabled us to utilize large amount of collected data to compare between the two solar technologies systems, into a smaller set of variable rules (see Tables 1 and 2). The benefit to cost ratio is shown in Table 3 as follows: Table 3. Benefit to cost weight ratio. 2010 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 4, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) Evaluation of Solar Electric Power Technologies in [4] Braun G, Skinner D. Experience Scaling-Up Manufacturing of Emerging Photovoltaic Technologies, report no. NREL/SR- 640-39165. Colorado, CA: U.S. Department of Energy Office The final results are shown in Figure 9 as follows: of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute, 2007. [5] Brakmann G, Aringhoff R, Tseke S. Concentrated Solar thermal power. Report no. 90-73361-82-6, Greanpeace. Netherlands, 2005. [6] Badran O. Study in industrial applications of solar energy and the range of its utilization in Jordan. Renewable Energy Vol. 24, No. 3-4, 2001, 485-490. [7] Bronicki Y. L., A solar-pond power plant IEEE [8] Blair N, Mehos M, Short W, Heimiller D. Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) – A New Model for
Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market
Potential. Solar Conference, Cole Boulevard Golden,
Figure 9. Comparison between benefits, costs and normalized Colorado 80401-3393, National Renewable Energy As can be inferred from Table 3, Fig 9, and from the fuzzy [9] Dersch J, Geyer M, Herrmann U, Jones SA., Kelly B, Kistner sets analysis, photovoltaic technology (PV) has higher R, Ortmanns W, Pitz-Paal R, Price H. Trough integration into benefit to cost ratio than solar pond and it is considered to power plants—a study on the performance and economy of be better option for power generation. It has high growing integrated solar combined cycle systems. Energy 2004;29(5- rate in the world wide in spite of its high cost. Solar pond is considered to supply cheaper electricity that PV [10] Durisch W, Keller J, Bulgheroni W, Keller L, Fricker H. technology but in the other hand it has lower benefits Solar irradiation measurements in Jordan and comparisons (Figure 9). This is because the output power is lower in with Californian and Alpine data. Applied Energy, this technology and the maintenance cost is considered to be high, due to high salinity of water. So that the best [11] Durisch W, Bitnar B, Mayor J, Kiess H, Lam K. Close J. option according to this study will be PV technology. Efficiency model for photovoltaic modules and demonstration of its application to energy yield estimation. 5.Conclusions
Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Vol. 91, No. 5, 2007, 79-84. The foreseeable shortages due to the increased population and the industrial activities in the world, and today's [12] Groenendaal B. Solar thermal power technologies, report no. already unreliable and distinctly expensive fossil resources ECN-C--02-062 Monograph in the framework of the are forcing a diversification of energy sources and driving VLEEM Project. Petten, the Netherlands, ECN the demand toward solar technologies in the near term. Fuzzy logic methodology for evaluating the solar thermal [13] Haas, R., T. Faber, J. Green, M. Gual, C. Huber, G. Resch, power technology enabled us to condense huge amount of W. Ruijgrok, and J. Twidell , Promotion Strategies for data into smaller sets, it has the ability to decide between Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in EU different solar technologies in the bases of their benefits Countries,. Institute of Energy Economics, Vienna University and cots. Based on fuzzy logic results, photovoltaic technology (PV) has the higher benefit to cost ratio than [14] Hrayshat E.S. Analysis of renewable energy situation in solar pond and it is considered to be better option for Jordan. Renew Sustain Energy Vol. 12, No. 1, 2007, 1873– power generation. PV has high growing rate in the world wide in spite of its high cost. Solar pond is considered to [15] International Energy Agency (IEA) Fact Sheet. Renewables supply cheaper electricity that PV technology but in the in Global Energy Supply. Report no. OECD-IEA, Paris, other hand it has lower benefits, due to its low solar [16] Jaber J.O., Jaber Q.M., Sawalha S.A., Mohsen M.S. Evaluation of conventional and renewable energy sources for References
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Integrated energy and water planning on an arid island Neven Duic confirmed (1)

Smart Grid applications in the US Technical potential and regulatory barriers confirmed (2)

Development of multistage converter for outdoor thermal electric cooling confirmed (3)

Effect_of_pressure_and_inlet_velocity_on_the_adiabatic_flame_temperature confirmed (4)

Incentives for technology development and project based mechanisms confirmed (5)

Laboratory and field scale bio confirmed (6)

Renewable_energy_potential_and_Characteristics_in_Jordan confirmed (7)

study and control of a power electriconic cascade using photovoltaic confirmed (8)

2009 International Conference and Exhibition on Green Energy & Sustainability for Arid Regions & Mediterranean Countries All rights reserved

the_measurement_of_overall_elastic_stiffness_and_bulk_modulus-in solar confirmed (9)

Thermodynamic_simulation_modelling_of_low_temperature_geothermal_source_located_in_arid_zone_area_north_africa confirmed (10)

Solid waste landfills as a source of Green Energy case study of AlAkader confirmed (11)

A_NOVEL_DUAL_EFFECT_SOOT_FILTERING_SYSTEM confirmned (12)

charasetrization_of_horizonntally_Grown_Silicon_Nanowires confirmed (14)

comparsion biogas supply chains using the example of the conditions of a municipilty confirmed (15)

a Comparison between the electrical and optical properties of CdS confirmed (16)

energy managment for stand alone PV System confirmed (17)

Interference_pigment_coated_solar_cells_for_use_in_high_radant_flux_environments confirmed (19)

DEVELOPMENT CHANCES OF DISTRIBUTED ENERGY PRODUCTON ON SMALL SCALE confirmed (20)

modelling_and_optimization_of_wind_energy_systems confirmed (21)

iach + ibch + icch = 0 ; uab + ubc + uca =0

New method for quality evaluation of Mc-Si Wafers Implied confirmed (22)

numerical modeling of coal-tire shred co-gasification confirmed(23)

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Reactive flow simulation results:

performance of photovoltiac generator multi-level cascade confirmed (24)

power quality and stability and stability improvement in wind park system (out of folder) confirmed (25)

solar net collective flux and conversion efficiency of the confirmed (26)

transient-analysis-and-output-chaaracteristic- done confirmed (27)

wind solar hybrid electrical power generation (out of folder) (28)

Rapidly shrinking Dead Sea urgently needs infusion of 0.9 km3 confirmed(29)

Seawater_desalination_system_integrated_to_single_effect confirmed (30)

A Study of fuel cell hybrid auto rickshaws using realistic urban drive cycles confirmed (13)

3.Auto Rickshaw Configuration Models

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